The 2025/26 Premier League fixtures have dropped, and it seems our unlucky streak didn’t quite end with a 15th place finish last season.
Manchester United have officially got the toughest opening 5 games in the league this year. That’s just what we needed, right?
And before some smart arse steps forward to claim someone else has it tougher, no they don’t. Opta has analysed the first 5 games of every Premier League club and given them a difficulty score: Manchester United’s is the highest in the league at 94.6.
So it’s official, we have the hardest start to the 2025/26 season of all.
๐๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ: Easiest & Toughest Starts ๐
The 2025-26 Premier League fixtures have just been released, so weโve looked at the schedule to analyse which teams have the easiest and toughest starts to the new season.
Best of luck Ruben Amorim…
โ Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 18, 2025
We open with Arsenal at home for goodness sake, then we have Fulham away, Burnley at home, Manchester City away, and Chelsea at home. Three top 4 finishers from last season and a couple of potential banana skins.
If Rubem Amorim’s men stumble out of the gates, the fallout could shape the rest of the campaign. Psychologically it could be over before it has even begun. However, if United rise to this challenge and manage to get a decent number of points, it could be a spark that ignites Amorim’s project.
Analysing the First Five Games
Let’s have a look at those first five games and see how things might pan out.
Arsenal at Home
Although we took a point last night the Gunners visited Old Trafford and knocked them out of the FA Cup last season on penalties, we haven’t beaten Arsenal in open play since 2022. Any meeting between these two teams is going to be fierce, even if the rivalry has tempered a bit since the late 90s and early 2000s, but meeting in the first game of the season will up the stakes somewhat.
Arsenal finished 2nd last season, they are one of the strongest teams in the league, and if they end up signing Gyokeres there will be added tension at Old Trafford given Amorim’s history with the Swedish striker and the fact United wanted him too. A win here would be enormous. I would even take another draw. It would take pressure off Amorim and boost morale. A loss, however, would put us right back where we were last season. Bottom of the table, full of doubt, and under pressure.
Fulham Away
This is a match weย should win. We beat Fulham 1-0 at home and away last season. That said, it should have been about 5-0 at Old Trafford, and it was almost 1-1 at Craven Cottage, but for a goal line clearance by Toby Collyer. We got the points both time, but should have performed better.
If we come into this game on the back of a loss to Arsenal, I’m going to be worried, because the players will be too. They will still be psychologically fragile from last season. Facing Fulham with zero points on the board make this game a must win. Even a draw will be seen as a failure. Dropping points in our two opening games would be a disaster.
Burnley at Home
Back in the Premier League after going up and down like a yo-yo, Burnley will be desperate for points early on. If we have performed poorly in our first two fixtures, they will smell blood and their confidence will be up. Even in a worst case scenario we should be getting 3 points here though. Anything else would feel disastrous. Complacency is our biggest threat.
I honestly don’t see a world where we lose this game. However, if we do, especially after losing the other two, it will be panic stations. Amorim would be in serious trouble. I can’t see it getting that bad though. I think we get 3 points from this game, I just don’t want them to be our first 3 points of the season.
Manchester City Away
Regardless of what happens in the first 3 games, Man City away is arguably the Everest of the 5 fixtures. City away is always one of the hardest games on any Premier League calendar, and they have been strengthening over the summer, too.
However, our recent record against the Cityzens has been decent. We beat them 2:1 at the Etihad last season, and held them to a 0:0 draw at Old Trafford. Not to mention beating them in the FA Cup final the season before. The importance of this one depends on how things have gone in the games prior to some degree. I would take a draw, and even a loss wouldn’t be the end of the world if we play well. However, if we get a pasting that’s a different story. More than any other game in this run, this one is about perception.
Chelsea at Home
We did ok against Chelsea last season. We drew 1-1 at home but played well, and although we lost 1-0 at Stamford Bridge we were unlucky after Maguire was centimetres offside for his goal, and gave a good account of ourselves. This time around Chelsea have Liam Delap, who United were in the market for, so that will add another layer to the game.
So this one could go either way. By this point, we will already know the tone of the season. Amorim will either be sweating and wishing he never left Sporting, or well on the way to steadying the ship and enjoying some confidence from his players and in himself.
Why These Games are so Important
Obviously the points are important, but it’s about momentum too. Last season’s 15th place finish wasn’t just a footballing disaster, it was a psychological one.
The sort of persistent underperformance, injuries, negative press, and back office chaos really eats away at the players emotional wellbeing, and that shows on the pitch. The summer break has given them a chance to reset, regroup, and to work on Amorim’s system uninterrupted by a challenging schedule. This is the start of the rebuild, and it needs a decent foundation to start from.
The signing of Matheus Cunha will bring some much needed positivity and enthusiasm, Bruno sticking around will help too, not to mention any other signings that come about (I’m looking at you Bryan Mbuemo). If we can finally offload Rashford, Sancho, Antony, and Garnacho, the stink at United will be gone and the place will finally be able to air out.
Add a couple of early wins and a decent mid-table position 5 games in, and Amorim earns himself breathing room, the team have something to build on, and the club can finally start to move on.
If we lose all five, or come away with just a couple of draws, the questions will come hard and fast, and so will the self doubt.
What Does Success Look Like?
For me, a successful outcome from these 5 games would be somewhere around 7-9 points. Two wins and a draw or two is a respectable start given the competition, 3 wins or more would be a very good start indeed.
To be honest, even 6 points might just scrape us through depending on where they come from and how well we perform. I’d like to aim higher than that, though.
What we absolutely cannot afford is zero wins. Or heavy defeats. Or scraping through by the skin of our teeth really. We need to see a team who are organised, who believe in themselves, and who play with purpose and desire. The confusion and disorganisation that was all too common last season needs to be gone. Manchester United need to show the fans they have moved on from the chaos.
We aren’t exactly being eased into the new season, we are being thrown in the deep end wearing a weighted vest. Nevertheless, that is not going to be an excuse supporters will accept if it all goes wrong early doors.
It also provides an opportunity to make a statement of intent. If we can get through the toughest season start of any club in the league with a decent number of points and some strong performances, people will start believing again.
Belief brings confidence. Confidence brings results. Results bring trophies.
Up the reds.